Oregon Media Insiders

Here's a contrasting viewpoint from someone who has a lot of properties and is looking to buy more. I don't sell property for anyone else. I just buy it, rent it, hold it and get rich doing it. I've been at it quite a while.

I would personally love to see RE prices collapse over the next couple of years. I'd gladly take a big hit to my net worth on paper in order to scoop up houses, duplexes, condos at big discounts.

So, my bias is---LET IT HAPPEN!. Problem is I just don't think it will. Love 'em or hate 'em, Oregon's urban growth boundaries aren't expanding and our population continues to grow. 95% of Oregon's population is crammed onto 5% of the land with the vast majority of the population along the I-5 corridor. We're not surrounded by the Pacific Ocean like Hawaii but we might as well be. There is simply no political will to expand UGB's---especially if there is a construction slowdown. I'm not saying that's right or wrong---I'm just telling it like it is.

Bottom line; Even if short-term unemployment problems develop we'll still have more than enough people to fill our housing. Remember, too, that people losing their homes haven't necessarily lost their jobs and they'll still need a place to live. Those folks will simply go from being owners to being renters. That, in fact, is why more homes are in foreclosure now---at the same time that rents are increasing.

Those who want to harken back to the recession of the early 80's need to remember that our economy is extremely diverse now. It wasn't then. Remember also that 1st mortgage interest rates were in the low, mid, even upper teens. Today they're in the mid single digits.

I hope you're all right. I hope the market drops 20% or more. I'd scoop up as much as I could and pay for it with rising rental income.

Before you worry about all those high rise condos think about Vancouver, BC. You can't get anything there for less than half-a-million and demand remains big. Why? Urban growth boundaries.

Don't panic if you're a homeowner. As long as you can make your payments you'll be fine. Don't wait too long if you're looking to buy because the opportunity may be now. If there are panicky individual sellers find them and make low offers. I don't believe the Portland/Salem/Eugene/Medford type markets will necessarily reward a long wait.

Just my opinion. Lynn, if this proves wrong post this again in a year and open me to ridicule. I'm not worried about that happening.