Oregon Media Insiders

I thought it was time to entertain a few predictions for TV sweeps in November.
First off if it is true, and history does repeat itself, then KATU is my choice for greatest growth in November. Those of you old enough to remember the mid nineties, might remember when The Providence Journal brought in Mike Rausch to shake up things at KGW. He introduced SkyCams to Portland, Doppler radar, brought back the helicopter wars, introduced the KGW philosophy of dominating breaking news coverage and added dynamite promotion department. KGW was on a 5-year plan to win and dominate local news. Part way through their crusade KGW was sold to BELO, Rausch found himself out and the current ND reaped the benefits of the huge capital outlay, promotions and resources.
Though on many accounts Mike got a little nuttier at the deuce, he was finally able to update their newsroom and buy cutting edge technology for their field crews. KATU has resisted the urge buy into the KPTV crime, shock and pedophile lead... Their stories have more substance and relevance to the community. Dunn is one of the strongest anchors in the market and has the tenure to really blossom with the right promotion package. So it all is on the shoulders of the new News Director. If he stays the course and does some minor tweaking (hires stronger reporters) KATU could be on the same path as the old KGW.
So, after burying the lead here are my predictions for the local stations.
KPTV: Will continue strengthen and grow in the AM. They have the best chemistry in the mornings and keep things light and entertaining. 12 will begin to lose numbers at 10pm, due primarily to the ongoing FOX fatigue.
KGW: The big 8 will benefit from the FOX fatigue at 10 and will see growth in that time on their WB channel. They will lose the mornings to KPTV, the 6 and 6:30pm shows to KATU.
KATU: Aside from their strong showing at 6 and 6:30 they will continue to see growth at 5pm. The mornings should do well with Click, especially as KOIN continues to embarrass itself with their morning attempt.
KOIN: Their best opportunity for growth is at 11pm, with their great CBS lead -ins they are still losing half their audience to KGW and KATU. Other than the 11pm there isn't much hope for KOIN, unless they are quickly sold to a media group that values community and news. I think they will eventually dump the mornings and will continue to reduce their news presence and eventually contract out their product, or drop news altogether.
So if history does truely repeat itself, and stations do cycle in and out of viewer preferences, then
this November could be intresting race.